TheDrop Market Analysis, 09/30/25

Markets finished the September month strong, setting records as stocks rebounded amid uncertainty over the U.S. government's potentially first shutdown in seven years.

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and then-Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (right) arguing over border wall funding, sparking gov't shutdown in 2018, slaynews.com.

The S&P 500 index rose 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3%. These results created the best third quarter for both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 since 2020 and their best performance in the month of September since the year 2010, when the economy was recovering from recession. While this may seem to be good news, instead they are the fallout of the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate cut, along with natural correction provoked by markets' deep losses in July and August as a result of tariff policies.

The VIX volatility index inched higher by 1%. European and Asian ETFs rose for the second day in a row as trade tensions ease. Cryptocurrencies, however, fell slightly as they consolidate to more rational levels following their rally yesterday. Commodities like gold and silver, on the other hand, rose significantly, with gold making new highs at >$3,890.

Markets seemed to rise not over the uncertainty induced by the looming government shutdown tonight, but rather the shutdown's effect of preventing the release of jobs reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Many anticipate a softening jobs market, the same reason for the Fed's rate cut this month, so removing the risk of exacerbating economic sentiment was seen favorably by investors.

The Magnificent Seven largely stagnated with the exception of Nvidia, which rose again fueled by reassurances by CEO Jensen Huang.