Top economist warns that third of states are at risk of recession while another third is stagnating

The top economist Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, has warned that a third of U.S. states are at high risk of recession while another third of states are stagnant or "treading water," leaving only a third of U.S. states available for growth.

Chief Economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics, UPI/Newscom/MEGA.

Mr. Zandi previously cited a high-risk warning for the overall U.S. economy earlier this month, sourcing dangerous datapoints regarding a weakening labor market and rising inflation. He labeled the economy as on the "precipice of recession," attracting many economic analysts' support with some heated opposition from conservatives deeming the tariff-heavy economy strong.

But just yesterday on X, formerly Twitter, the highly regarded economist made a controversial Tweet showcasing an entire list of American states with each having labeled a specific economic "business cycle status," which go from "Recession/ High Risk" to "Expansion" to "Treading Water."

The economist stated on the post, "States experiencing recessions are spread across the country, but the broader DC area stands out due to government job cuts. Southern states are generally the strongest, but their growth is slowing. California and New York, which together account for over a fifth of U.S. GDP, are holding their own, and their stability is crucial for the national economy to avoid a downturn."

Mr. Zandi's post on the social media platform X, formerly Twitter, The Daily Drop (5:37 pm EST).

This data only further supports his previous statements regarding the economic instability of the economy. Many economists like himself have cited concerns about tariffs, and even the shrinking money supply (at least a slowly rising one). Trump's latest tariff moves on the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and others, although still reduced from previous proposals as a result of successful trade agreements, still represent large tariff hikes, nonetheless, thus warranting further economic uncertainty.

With this news being very early, large fluctuations in the betting markets have not yet occurred, but odds rose from below 10% to 11% in the span of the past few days, according to Polymarket.

Recent data like the July PPI have helped quantify the warnings of economists like Zandi, which show the quickest inflation increases since 2022 in the span of a month.