Inflation rises higher than expected in June CPI
- Alexangel Ventura
- Jul 15
- 2 min read
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Prince Index (CPI) report for the month of June, inflation - the rise of prices - rose at a quicker rate than expected.
The data, released on Tuesday July 15th at 8:30 AM a mere hour before the opening of the stock market, has been hyped up by investors to be a significant asset to the rise of stocks, but others argued that it could've set stocks downward if results were unfavorable. However, the data showed both astonishingly good news for the economy, but also signs of a detrimental trend of price increases since the start of 2025 that has not yet ceased.
June's CPI report displayed quite interesting results for a number of investors and economic analysts. The index for all items excluding the volatile prices of food and energy rose 0.2% against the month prior, while the index for food specifically rose 0.3%, and energy rose 0.9% (gasoline specifically rose 1%). The costs of automobiles saw the sharpest declines in June by 0.3% (new vehicles) and 0.7% (used cars and trucks).
Most important was the overall shift in CPI, having increased 0.3% in June compared to the 0.1% in May, which many economists did not anticipate. Instead, the CPI reached 2.7%, which although was not very far from the 2.6% prediction, was still an acceleration nonetheless.
Inflation specifically ramped up 0.2% in June to an annual rate of roughly 2.9%, roughly in line, slightly above, estimates.
U.S. President Donald Trump, seeking immediate interest rate cuts as early as this month, used the CPI report's above average results to indicate a shift in Fed policy. "Consumer Prices LOW. Bring down the Fed Rate, NOW!!!," the president posted on his social media platform Truth Social.
However, other analysts reacted to the news as only a piece of evidence supporting holding rates in July. Michael Feroli, the Chief U.S. Economist at J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, stated to Reuters, "If fully passed through, would add about 0.4 percentage points to the PCE price level… more likely estimate is 0.2–0.3 points. We think this bolsters the case for the Fed to take a very cautious approach to rate cuts."
Additionally, Economist Tani Fukui of MetLife Investment Management stated in reaction to the CPI report, "I would see this as good evidence that tariffs are coming through with increases in prices on items that you would expect."
Many who viewed this news as dangerous cited concern regarding Trump's new batch of tariffs, which have threatened further price increases in imported commodities.
Markets including Polymarket have already ruled out a July rate cut by the Fed despite significant pushes for a small cut by President Trump and Fed officials including Christopher Waller.
The stock market has fallen in reaction to this news Tuesday, with the S&P 500 index down 0.11% and the Dow 30 index down 0.76% as of 1:46 PM EST.
