U.S. to surpass Greece, Italy in debt by 2030 amid Trump tax cuts

Recent projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have shown that the debt-to-GDP ratio in the United States will surpass that of Greece in Italy by 2030 as tax revenue declines due to the Trump Big, Beautiful Bill passed in 2025.

A torn U.S. flag, hairballusa/Getty Images.

The projection from the IMF showed that by 2030, the United States of America would have a debt-to-GDP ratio of 143.4, which would rank the second highest of all nations in the world, only below that of Japan at 222.2. This number would surpass that of Italy's 137 and Greece's 130.2; both nations currently have higher debt-to-GDP ratios than the United States as of 2025 data from the IMF.

Italy and Greece are now making large efforts of cutting down on their debt by reducing spending and growing revenue. The Guardian notes, "The IMF predicts the US will see its debts climb from 125% to 143% of annual income by the end of the decade, while Italy’s will flatline at about 137%… Greece is on track to cut the ratio of debt to gross domestic product… from 146% to 130%..." And, this is very evident by the two countries' budget balancing policies, with the fiscal conservative in Italy Giorgia Meloni enacting major budget cuts to feed the repayment of debt, with Greece following suit. This is in contrast to other developed European nations like Germany, who are expected to rise gradually in debt over the coming years.

However, the key thing to note about the data is the American statistic, which will rise from 125 in 2025 to over 143.4, one of the highest expected increases in the world. Joe Gagnon, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, argue that both parties in the United States are to blame. "But this net measure is rising too… Democrats don’t want to cut spending and Republicans don’t want to raise taxes. They both want to cling on to that. I don’t know when that dynamic will change," Gagnon argues. With the incumbent Trump administration having initiated the largest wave of tax cuts in American history, trillions will be taken off the national revenue pool, causing debt to immediately surge. However, Democrats' unwillingness to cut spending in key areas like military, healthcare, and social security will serve as a long-term inflator of the debt situation. With both parties currently unable to even reach a deal to reopen the government as of now, a compromise on fiscal policy is almost impossible for the purpose of reducing the deficit.

Mary Obstfeld, Former Chief Economist at the IMF and now an academic in the economic field, reacted to the IMF projection by stating, "Any forecast that the US’s fiscal position was sustainable has to be based on wishful thinking about future US productivity growth, tariff revenue, demographics or interest rates, or possibly all of the above." This is very true; stock market growth in recent months glorified interest rate cuts and other limited economic factors without acknowledging the broader fate of the economy - one of endless deficit spending and irreversible debt.

Perhaps with the release of this data, American politicians would have greater impulse to reopen the government (now approaching 30 days of closure) and negotiate a truly deficit-trimming economic bill which includes increases in revenue and decreases in costs.