How the 2026 Midterm Elections look so far

With the 2026 election cycle almost at the corner, the political environment is shaping to be one of the closest election cycles in recent American history.

Senator Jon Ossoff, Georgia.

The Senate is poised to be a very interesting dynamic, as 4 Democrats and 2 Republicans are retiring, leaving 6 open seats up for election, with 3 being more competitive. In Minnesota, Democrats Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan will fight in the primary in a close race until either one of them, most likely, defeat a Republican challenger by a narrow margin. In Michigan, with incumbent Dem. Gary Peters retiring, Haley Stevens is currently the frontrunner in the Dem. primary while Mike Rogers is the frontrunner in the Rep. primary, leading to a very close race in the general election according to tight polling. In New Hampshire, the retirement of Jeanne Shaheen has provoked Rep. Chris Pappas to lead in the Dem. primary, with Scott Brown being a potential challenger in the general. The Illinois Senate Election has been poised to be a close race between Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, and Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton. Deep red Kentucky will be a tight election between Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr, and Alabama will for now be an easy victory for Attorney General Steve Marshall. But, some races that are not open will be competitive, including Georgia, which will be a contest between incumbent Jon Ossoff and some Republican challenger, who is more likely to be Buddy Carter as of now. Maine will be close naturally, as incumbent Republican Susan Collins is up for re-election in a near-solid blue state, but with no clear Democrat challenger at the moment. And North Carolina will be tight between Thom Tillis and Wiley Nickel or Roy Cooper. We expect the Senate to hold for Republicans due to the solid majority that they hold now.

The House is, for now, a tossup. Polling has shown no clear edge for either side. Republicans do have a very narrow edge in terms of solidly red districts, but tossups could easy flip the House Democrat on even a blue trickle night. Some incumbent Republicans, like Reps. Don Bacon, Mike Lawler, and Brian Fitzpatrick, are vulnerable to Democrat flips. The Daily Drop gives the House a very narrow Democratic majority, with this being subject to change.

There are many key gubernatorial races which could tip the scales in favor of one party or the other nationally. New York, which is destined to have a divided Dem. primary between Kathy Hochul and Antonio Delgado, could be a possible Republican pickup if strong candidates like EPA Admin. Lee Zeldin or Rep. Mike Lawler decide to run. Kansas is losing strong Dem. incumbent Laura Kelly due to term limits, meaning that it could be a safe red flip if the right candidate runs. Reps also have a shot at Arizona, where incumbent Katie Hobbs has performed sub-optimally in approval polls, and Karrin Taylor Robson is a strong moderate challenger. Joe Lombardo is expected to easily hold Nevada safely for the Republicans with his strong approval rating, modeling what Brian Sandoval did in 2014. Illinois could be competitive as there is no strong Democratic candidate in the field at the moment (unless JB Pritzker runs again, but he already served for two terms and is not very popular). This does not mean Republicans could falter, too. The previously strong red state of Georgia, fueled by the popularity of Brian Kemp, is now in trouble without a strong Rep. coalition. Florida, without popular gov. Ron DeSantis, will get closer. Iowa could be competitive with strong Dem. Rob Sand. Texas could be close if Dems chose a strong candidate like Beto O'Rourke or Joaquin Castro. Even Alaska could get competitive, as ranked choice voting produced quite interesting results recently, like Mary Peltola's 2022 victory in the House.