The State of the 2024 Race

The 2024 presidential race is the closest that it has ever been since the debate earlier this month.

Undoubtedly, this election is expected to be an extremely tight race between former president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris.

Polls indicate no clear frontrunner, with both Harris and Trump having very narrow leads within the margin of error, so we don't have a clear winner in the popular vote thus far. This could be due to political trends, as Trump is performing better among minority voters, especially Hispanics, while Harris improves upon her female support.

However, the swing state specific polls indicate a completely different story. While Trump holds strong two-point leads in Arizona and Georgia, Harris is holding strong in the blue wall states of Wisconsin and Michigan by 1-4 points, while Pennsylvania and North Carolina are in a dead heat.

Many political pundits expect Trump to be the favorite in North Carolina, which was the only swing state out of seven to go his way in the 2020 election, and the state's rigid Republican history.

Harris has significantly improved from President Biden's polling numbers in June. While Trump held massive leads in many of the swing states by upwards of 6-7 points, now his lead has shrunk in some states while completely turning in favor of Harris in others.

The debate in September was very controversial on both sides. While Harris did perform significantly better than how most expected, she spewed many lies or misleading statements about Trump, such as his "bloodbath" comments and being a dictator "on day one." She also continued to project the fact-checked statement that Trump will do Project 2025 upon elected, which Trump has condemned numerous times as "extreme." Trump did perform much worse than many expected and brought up the unproved "cats and dogs" statement about the influx of illegal immigrants in Springfield, Ohio eating the pets of the civilians. Government officials repeatedly disproved this argument. Many also believed that Trump did not attack Harris enough, or demonstrate enough of his plan, or a mix of both. The moderators fact-checked Trump several times.