Who is favored in the 2024 presidential race?

The 2024 U.S. presidential election has just become more heated and competitive after a series of events resulting in Democrats tightening the gap between them and Donald Trump.

By implementing a series of statewide polls, you'll find an election map looking something like this:

This electoral map shows a narrow lead for Kamala Harris in both the electoral college and the national popular vote. However, given just how narrow this election really is, polling proves very little in deciding upon a single winner.

Currently, Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by about 2 percentage points nationwide, which is not enough to win the electoral college like other Democrats have. Joe Biden, despite beating Trump by almost five points, won the electoral college by a narrow margin, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the electoral college to Trump despite winning the popular vote by 2%. Despite this, Harris is leading Trump in many key swing states, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

So, who is leading in the election? Well, neither. None of these candidates truly has a competitive advantage over the other. Donald Trump ran well against Biden by attacking him on the issues, but with Harris has lost his substantial lead in the race. Meanwhile, despite many attacks on Trump, Harris has not garnered a significant amount of support to lock in the race for her.

How will this election unfold then? This election will be determined over the next two months through key events, newly addressed issues, scandals, and debates. But for now, the race is tied between the two candidates. Maybe in a month or so, we can truly find the leading candidate of the race.

It is important to compare the campaigns of the two candidates. While Harris has centered her campaign around progressive issues and abortion to fire up her core base, Donald Trump has attacked Democrats on core issues and raised concerns/solutions to these problems. Many Democrat staffers have urged Harris to reach to moderate voters by adopting fewer radical positions.

However, Trump is vulnerable to attacks related to Project 2025, the Jan. 6th protests, his many indictments, and his past history as president. Many of these arguments by Democrats have been fact-checked as being either misleading or wrong but have had a major impact on Trump's reputation. Harris has thus closed the cap with Trump.

It is up to the voters, in the end, to decide who is the winner of the election. So, consider listening to viewpoints on both sides of the isle to make an informed decision of who will be receiving your vote this year.